Guías Docentes Electrónicas
1. General information
Course:
BUSINESS DECISION MODELLING
Code:
54338
Type:
ELECTIVE
ECTS credits:
4.5
Degree:
329 - UNDERGRADUATE DEGREE PROGRAMME IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION (TA)
Academic year:
2022-23
Center:
15 - FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF TALAVERA
Group(s):
60 
Year:
4
Duration:
C2
Main language:
Spanish
Second language:
English
Use of additional languages:
English Friendly:
Y
Web site:
Bilingual:
N
Lecturer: IVAN MARTIN LADERA - Group(s): 60 
Building/Office
Department
Phone number
Email
Office hours
Facultad CC. SS. 2.10
926051584
ivan.my@uclm.es
Tue 12-1PM, 3-4PM y 6-7PM Wed 12-1PM, 3-4PM y 5-6PM

2. Pre-Requisites

Mandatory requirements:

Studied and passed the following courses: Introduction to Econometrics, Statistical Inference and Econometric Methods and Models.

Also needed:

1.- Matrix algebra

2.- Statistical inference

3.- Introduction to Econometrics: Basic econometrics linear regression models

4.- Economic theory

5.- Economic structure and national accounting

3. Justification in the curriculum, relation to other subjects and to the profession

1. Contribution of the subject to the curriculum:

Models for Business Decision course has as main goal offer theoretical and practical approaches to modeling applied to the business field, with special attention to forecasting models, econometric simulation and optimization, as support for decision making. This includes:

-To provide information to students in different professional approaches to use of forecasting models and business simulation useful in the decision-making process.

- Offer a set of business prediction techniques in the short and medium term.

- Framing the role of modeling as a forecasting and simulation tool for the modern Strategic Information Systems in the company (SIE), the analysis of business environment indicators and the creation of scorecards in the company.

- Ability to recognize a problem, analyze it and solve it using the scientific method of modeling.

- Apply the acquired theoretical knowledge to the realization of a course work in which the student will be able to elaborate, under the direct supervision of the professor and with the support of the computer equipment, an econometric model.

- Acquire the capacity for debate and informed discussion about the issues and problems that affect the business decision-making process from a quantitative perspective.

- Quantify the effects of business policy changes on business results (eg: impact of advertising campaigns, changes in the product, in the organization, etc.) and measure the effectiveness of the adopted policies.

- Incorporate strategic planning into mathematical-econometric models that allow establishing alternative scenarios for the time horizon and evaluate the different policies.

2. Relationship with other subjects:

The subject taught is related to the content of subjects in which numerical information is manipulated. It is an essential complement to a practical and real vision applied to the business field of subjects such as Introduction to Econometrics and Econometric Methods and Models.

3. Relationship with the profession:

The general objective will be to train professionals who know how to analyze, in a critical and rigorous way, the economic and business reality, as well as to make decisions in an environment of uncertainty, which will enable them to choose the best alternative to act. This includes:

-Capacitate the economist to attend situations of prediction and simulation of company policies at the service of Decision Making. -Design and construction of prediction models in the short and medium term, of the strategic variables of the company: sales, costs, resources

human resources, prices, business investments, etc.

- Quantify the effects of business policy changes on business results (for example, the impact of advertising campaigns, changes in the product, in the organization, etc.) and measure the effectiveness of the adopted policies.

-Incorporate strategic planning in mathematical-econometric models that allow establishing alternative scenarios for the time horizon and evaluate the different policies.


4. Degree competences achieved in this course
Course competences
Code Description
E07 Understand the economic environment as a result and application of theoretical or formal representations on how the economy works. To do so, it will be necessary to be able to understand and use common handbooks, as well as articles and, in general, leading edge bibliography in the core subjects of the curriculum.
E08 Ability to produce financial information, relevant to the decision-making process.
G01 Possession of the skills needed for continuous, self-led, independent learning, which will allow students to develop the learning abilities needed to undertake further study with a high degree of independence.
G03 Develop oral and written communication skills in order to prepare reports, research projects and business projects and defend them before any commission or group of professionals (specialised or non-specialised) in more than one language, by collecting relevant evidence and interpreting it appropriately so as to reach conclusions.
G04 Ability to use and develop information and communication technologies and to apply them to the corresponding business department by using specific programmes for these business areas.
5. Objectives or Learning Outcomes
Course learning outcomes
Description
Work out problems in creative and innovative ways.
Know the tools and methods for the quantitative analysis of the company and its environment, including models for business decision making as well as economic forecast models.
Additional outcomes
Description
Expertise on Excel software and econometric packages such Gretl. Time Series analysis, knowledge of models for business decision making as well as economic forecast models.
6. Units / Contents
  • Unit 1: Econometrics models for business: Approach and applications
    • Unit 1.1: Econometrics models for business: Approach and applications
    • Unit 1.2: Business forecasting techniques
    • Unit 1.3: Tools for decision making
  • Unit 2: Decision making and forecast Information systems
    • Unit 2.1: Business Information Systems
    • Unit 2.2: Business environment Analysis: Indicators and Data Processing
    • Unit 2.3: Strategic Information System for business
  • Unit 3: Business applications
    • Unit 3.1: Company Sales forecasts
    • Unit 3.2: Added value applications (Accounting, Human Resources, etc.)
    • Unit 3.3: Informed Reports and Presentations for Decision Making
7. Activities, Units/Modules and Methodology
Training Activity Methodology Related Competences ECTS Hours As Com Description
Class Attendance (theory) [ON-SITE] Lectures E07 E08 G01 G04 0.9 22.5 N N Subjet and course basic concepts explanation.
Laboratory practice or sessions [ON-SITE] Combination of methods E07 E08 G04 0.6 15 Y N Instrumental in nature, so that the student acquires the necessary knowledge on how to access economic and business data banks, as well as on the use of economic and econometric software packages, among other aspects. It could be a split practices group.
Writing of reports or projects [OFF-SITE] Combination of methods E07 E08 G01 G03 G04 2.7 67.5 Y Y Preparation of a tutorial course work. The elaboration of this work will consist in the construction of an econometric model. It requires having theoretical knowledge of the subject, obtaining economic data and managing a software package of econometric modeling, aspects on which the student will receive ongoing training throughout the course. The teachers will guide and advise the student in the preparation of this course work. Practical cases and recommended readings, empirical models and resolution of practical exercises.
Problem solving and/or case studies [ON-SITE] Combination of methods E07 E08 G03 G04 0.22 5.5 Y N Discussion of practical cases and recommended readings, debates on the theoretical explanations, realization of empirical models and resolution of practical exercises.
Final test [ON-SITE] Assessment tests G03 0.08 2 Y Y Final test with presentation and oral defense of the student's interactive work
Total: 4.5 112.5
Total credits of in-class work: 1.8 Total class time hours: 45
Total credits of out of class work: 2.7 Total hours of out of class work: 67.5

As: Assessable training activity
Com: Training activity of compulsory overcoming (It will be essential to overcome both continuous and non-continuous assessment).

8. Evaluation criteria and Grading System
Evaluation System Continuous assessment Non-continuous evaluation * Description
Final test 40.00% 0.00% [Continuous Evaluation]
The final test will contribute 40% of the final grade.
Other methods of assessment 60.00% 0.00% [Continuous Evaluation]
Participation and positive result of practical sessions, seminars, tutorials. Individual work. Solving problems and practical cases. Teamwork. Attention will be paid not only to the content, but to the correct use of scientific forms, content presentation and oral presentation.
Final test 0.00% 100.00% Mandatory Individual coursework designed.
Final test with presentation and oral defense of the course work.
Total: 100.00% 100.00%  
According to art. 4 of the UCLM Student Evaluation Regulations, it must be provided to students who cannot regularly attend face-to-face training activities the passing of the subject, having the right (art. 12.2) to be globally graded, in 2 annual calls per subject , an ordinary and an extraordinary one (evaluating 100% of the competences).

Evaluation criteria for the final exam:
  • Continuous assessment:
    Completion of a final test that will account for a maximum of 40% of the final grade, to which will be added the rest of the marks obtained in the previous activities carried out during the course (problem solving, preparation of papers, oral presentation, etc.) as long as the final test is passed with a minimum of 4 points out of 10.

    Students who, even having carried out assessable activities, wish to be evaluated with the non-continuous evaluation criteria must notify the professor before the end of the class period, provided that they have not participated during the period of classes in assessable activities that involve as a whole, at least 50% of the total evaluation of the subject.

    If the students have reached that 50% of assessable activities or if, in any case, the class period has ended, it will be considered in continuous evaluation without the possibility of changing the evaluation modality.
  • Non-continuous evaluation:
    The specific final test for non-continuous evaluation represents 100% of the grade. Final test with presentation and oral defense of the course work.

Specifications for the resit/retake exam:
The same as in ordinary continuous and non-continuous evaluation
Specifications for the second resit / retake exam:
Full Final test
9. Assignments, course calendar and important dates
Not related to the syllabus/contents
Hours hours
Writing of reports or projects [AUTÓNOMA][Combination of methods] 7.5
Problem solving and/or case studies [PRESENCIAL][Combination of methods] 5.5
Final test [PRESENCIAL][Assessment tests] 2

Unit 1 (de 3): Econometrics models for business: Approach and applications
Activities Hours
Class Attendance (theory) [PRESENCIAL][Lectures] 6
Laboratory practice or sessions [PRESENCIAL][Combination of methods] 6
Writing of reports or projects [AUTÓNOMA][Combination of methods] 10

Unit 2 (de 3): Decision making and forecast Information systems
Activities Hours
Class Attendance (theory) [PRESENCIAL][Lectures] 6
Laboratory practice or sessions [PRESENCIAL][Combination of methods] 4
Writing of reports or projects [AUTÓNOMA][Combination of methods] 10

Unit 3 (de 3): Business applications
Activities Hours
Class Attendance (theory) [PRESENCIAL][Lectures] 10.5
Laboratory practice or sessions [PRESENCIAL][Combination of methods] 5
Writing of reports or projects [AUTÓNOMA][Combination of methods] 40

Global activity
Activities hours
10. Bibliography and Sources
Author(s) Title Book/Journal Citv Publishing house ISBN Year Description Link Catálogo biblioteca
A. Pulido, A.M. López Predicción y simulación aplicada a la economía y gestión de empresas Madrid Pirámide 1999  
Greene, William H.1951- Análisis econométrico Prentice Hall 978-84-8322-007-5 2000 Ficha de la biblioteca
Intriligator, Michael D. Modelos econométricos, técnicas y aplicaciones Fondo de Cultura Económica 968-16-3140-4 1990 Ficha de la biblioteca
Pindyck, Robert S. Econometría: modelos y pronósticos McGraw-Hill 970-10-2925-9 2000 Ficha de la biblioteca
Villalba Vila, D., Jerez Méndez, M.A Sistemas de optimización para la planificación en la toma de decisiones empresariales Madrid Pirámide 1990  
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. Introducción a la econometría: un enfoque moderno Thomson 84-9732-268-1 2005 Ficha de la biblioteca



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